Predictive modeling and analysis of Nigerian petroleum depletion using a composite underground reservior
Date
2021-02
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Federal University of Technology, Owerri
Abstract
The thrust of this study is predictive modeling and analysis of Nigeria’s petroleum resources depletion, using a composite underground reservoir. The Nigerian Petroleum Data from 1957 to 2014, were obtained from the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), of the Ministry of Petroleum and Minerals Resources, Lagos Nigeria, which were applied as the experimental data. Predictive models were developed from material balance of Nigerian petroleum resources around a composite underground reservoir. Petroleum depletion models were developed using Hubbert concept, as the input functions were varied, and scatter diagrams of oil and gas production in Nigeria from 1957 to 2014 were plotted using MATLAB 7.9. The models were validated by superimposing them on the scatter diagram profiles of the cumulative data to determine their goodness of fit which were declared by the R-squared (R2 ) produced by the computer software. Hubbert oil depletion concept was employed for the peak determination, dumbbell intersection and establishment of petroleum depletion. Plots of these models were also made to find which models gave almost identical curves as the curves of the plots made from raw data for oil and gas. The models so obtained are all nonlinear equations which have volume as a function of time, and the best chosen to be the forecasting/predictive tool so desired. For the cumulative production and discovery of oil/gas resources, the chosen model 5 obtained is given as V(t) = R 3 (1−𝑒 − 1 𝑅 𝑡 ) + (Vo− R 2 t − R𝑡 2 2 ) 𝑒 − 1 𝑅 𝑡 , and for the annual production and discovery of oil/gas resources, the chosen model 5 obtained is given as P(t) = ( Vo 𝑅 − 𝑡 2 2)𝑒 − 1 𝑅 𝑡 . Based on the peak determinations and dumbbell intersections for the various models, it was found that the Nigerian oil reserve peaked in the year 2008AD (with volume = 28,018.9MMB), and the gas reserve will peak in the year 2065AD (with volume = 2.546 х 106bscf). The Nigerian oil reserve will be exhausted (vol. = 0.136817MMB) in the year 2682AD, while the gas follows suit in the year 3151AD (vol. = 1.62447bscf). The accuracies of these results are based on R2 of 0.9955 - 0.9963 for oil and 0.9979 - 0.9983 for gas. These results clearly show the efficacy of the models so developed, and their reliability in the prediction of Nigeria’s petroleum resources depletion. This result can be used by Nigerian government for planning, diversification of the economy and international bargaining and positioning in OPEC.
Description
This thesis is for the award of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Chemical Engineering
Keywords
Nigerian petroleum depletion, composite underground reservoir, predictive modeling and analysis, transfer and input functions, curve fitting, intersection of dumbbell profiles, Department of Chemical Engineering
Citation
Okere, P. C. (2021). Predictive modeling and analysis of Nigerian petroleum depletion using a composite underground reservior (Unpublished Doctoral Thesis). Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria